April 3, 2010 – 10:41 am | 7 Comments

I’ve compiled a short (just 7-pages) e-book, an introduction to the mathematics of poker. It’s basically covers how to calculate your expected value in a certain spot – starting with explaining what EV is, all …

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Discussions about the theory behind the game.

Opponent Modelling

Ideas about modelling opponent’s play, and how to best do that with mathematical tools.

Hand Analysis

Analyses of past hands (my own or otherwise), using math as much as possible to determine how well the hand was played.

Mental Processes

Thoughts about the mental/psychological side of poker – dealing with tilt, etc.


Other information – book reviews, contests, announcements, or random spew.

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Articles in Theoretical

Pre-flop Raise, then C-bet Strategy
March 29, 2010 – 12:28 am | 19 Comments
Pre-flop Raise, then C-bet Strategy

I was playing a live game on Friday night, and someone commented that I rely too much on the “preflop raise, then c-bet flop” strategy. It’s a strategy that I picked up from Daniel Negreanu’s …

Getting Value From Flush Draw on the Flop
February 21, 2010 – 10:28 pm | 17 Comments
Getting Value From Flush Draw on the Flop

This is a topic I’ve been wondering about, so I thought I’d do some calculations to figure out the best line of play here. So, imagine a situation like this.
Poker Stars $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold’em …

Opponent Modelling – Calling/Raising a 4-bet
February 9, 2010 – 2:20 am | 2 Comments
Opponent Modelling – Calling/Raising a 4-bet

One thing about poker math is that it’s not just about odds. A proper application of math to poker also looks at modelling opponents.
So, today I want to take an initial look at this. Say, …

Small Ball Strategy – Flop Bet Sizing
January 17, 2010 – 10:58 pm | 5 Comments

In a previous post, I looked at this example from TrueGamble, and studied the preflop action; concluding that the ideal raise would have been between 2.5x to 3x the big blind, and that the 2x …

Theory of Induction
January 11, 2010 – 11:11 pm | No Comment

I had a really good discussion in my earlier post about my Pocket Aces hand. One thing from the conversation that struck me the most, however, was this statement by “Micro Donk”
if they fold to …

Equity Spreadsheet by MPhobia
December 29, 2009 – 9:20 pm | No Comment

MPhobia from the 2+2 forums recently posted this great equity spreadsheet.
It shows equity percentages vs. 1 and 2 opponents for 15 hands (AA to KQo) vs. opponent percentage hand ranges in a graphical format I’ve …

Pre-Flop Odds Charts
December 27, 2009 – 8:43 pm | One Comment
Pre-Flop Odds Charts

This post has been in the works for a while now, it’s just taken me longer than I expected to run the calculations on PokerStove. What is it I’ve done? A preflop odds chart.
WestonPoker has …

Math Corrections: TPTK Odds
December 27, 2009 – 12:59 am | No Comment

Looking back at my post on Broadway vs Small Pairs, I realize I made a mistake in one of the calculations. In the post, I said this:
There are 2 more Js which you don’t want, …

Broadway vs Small Pairs Flop Analysis
December 22, 2009 – 10:13 am | 6 Comments

An interesting question came up on the 2+2 forums. The poster had heard the statement “it is easier to play a hand like AJ OOP then a small pocket pair because you will flop TPTK …

Expected Value In Poker
December 16, 2009 – 10:33 pm | One Comment
Expected Value In Poker

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A couple of people have mentioned that they find what I’m doing here interesting (thanks, by the way, really appreciate the support), but that the math can be hard to follow. So I …