Very latest blog post from our new web page

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The obvious way to quantify future betting is to put a number on it, and see how varying that number changes the decision. When you are the preflop aggressor, there are three possible flops, ones you hit, ones it’s likely no one hit and ones you miss that have danger cards.

There are various plausible strategies that you want to compare. Say you want to consider c-betting half the pot in the first two cases, and c-betting half the pot half the time in the last one. For each of these cases, there’s a chance the other players will reraise, call or fold. Suppose you reraise a reraise if you hit the flop, and fold otherwise.

Let P be the pre-flop pot and all profits are stated relative to your stack just before the flop is dealt. Now you’ve got seven possible scenarios:

Hit flop – C-bet – players fold – Win P

Hit flop – C-bet – players call – Expected win 0.5P

Hit flop – C-bet – multiple raises – Expected win 0.25P

Miss flop – C-bet – players fold – Win P

Miss flop – C-bet – players call – Expected win -0.25P

Miss flop – C-bet – players reraise – Win -0.5P

Miss flop – don’t C-bet – Expected win 0.5P

In three of them you know your outcome, in the other four you have to guess (I stuck in some sample values). You can compute the probability of hitting or not hitting the flop, and making a c-bet or not; the other players’ reactions and your expected win in the four cases in which play continues have to be estimated either by analysis or sampling.

]]>Now, I do think it is worthwhile to try to calculate our chances for the opponent to fold right away to our c-bet on the flop, not to a double or triple barrel.

But then “How often you need to win when called” is problematic because it gets right back into future action.

I’m not sure what to do with this, but I feel that the second variable is always going to be a pretty rough estimate.

]]>And of course, you don’t have to do it. I’m just trying to figure out what conditions make it favorable to do so.

Oh,and again, the two variables I’ve used in my analysis are quite ‘high-level’, in terms of hierarchy in the thought process. Whether you hit the flop, how likely it is that your opponents hit the flop – those are all things that lead to the two variables I used.

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