Comments on: Getting Value From Flush Draw on the Flop

By: jason

jason — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 04:42:07 +0000

a person is more likely to fold to a large bet than a small bet, generally.

By: guitarizt

guitarizt — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 10:07:38 +0000

I'd bet 16 cents on the flop and barrel any broadway turn card because that's what I'd do with all my air here. Same for the river. If you're not betting with QdJd here you're not going to be able to represent anything when you're bluffing here in the future.

By: Derrick Kwa

Derrick Kwa — Wed, 24 Mar 2010 23:17:47 +0000

Agreed, definitely a lot more cases here to look at, but this is just a simple look. If I consider all the possibilities, I'd probably have to write a book. Thanks for bringing it up, though, it is a really important thing to note.

As for whether fold equity is at 30%, it really depends on who you're playing. When I was playing 2NL, I was choosing the tighter/nittier tables, so I do think I could have had a 20-30% fold equity.

By: Derrick Kwa

Derrick Kwa — Wed, 24 Mar 2010 23:15:57 +0000

What do you mean by I shouldn't assume fold equity to hold constant?

I'm basically calculating the *required* fold equity for the appropriate bet.

By: Titan

Titan — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:02:54 +0000

Tbh at 2NL I don't think fold equity is at 30%. If you intend to go really deep into the math for this, you've to take in consideration when he has the nutflush draw over you, the backdoor nut flush draw (a solitary ace diamond) where you might be able to further extract more value.

By: jason

jason — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 10:11:14 +0000

you shouldn't assume fold equity to hold constant.
i generally bet flush draws to take down the pot, and it also looks like i'm trying to avoid getting drawn out on, so if i catch, i feel like i have better calling equity. my bet sizes overlap regardless of which side of a flush draw i'm on to help disguise my play, but i bet bigger generally without the draw.

By: Derrick Kwa

Derrick Kwa — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 17:05:12 +0000

Glad you enjoy it. =). I'm gaining a lot from the dialogue as well.

What level of math…well, what I'm doing so far is really just basic probability, I guess? Shouldn't require too advanced math.

By: mathwannabe

mathwannabe — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 23:51:13 +0000

I'm enjoying the dialog. I have a family member who is good in math…I was going to ask them to help me learn the level of algebraic equations that will help me solve these types of problems. What level do your recommend?

Standtall

By: Derrick Kwa

Derrick Kwa — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 11:55:09 +0000

I think the thing for this specific hand is that the hand was meant more as an example for the general idea of betting flush draws. It probably wasn't the best example hand, but yeah. The calculations were meant for the general idea.

You're actually about 50-50 against AK and 46-54 behind to AQ. So, you aren't exactly favorite. I get what you mean, but yeah, just saying.

As for betting full pot, I wouldn't actually bet full pot, especially since you're just no a draw. The analysis does show that it's still +EV as long as the opponent is folding 30% of the time (which in this specific hand is probably true), but in general, with flush draws, I think 50-60% is safer.

By: Matt

Matt — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 11:43:01 +0000

You're making the assumption here that you need to hit your flush to win.However, if the guy doesn't have 88, KK, AA, or 2x, then you are a *favourite* in the hand. Suppose you knew the guy had AK and he check-raises you on the flop then you should reraise for value!

Secondly, suppose you bet, get check-raised, just call, and hit your flush. The opponent may bet again, or he may call a couple more bets with a hand like A2 just because he doesn't believe you have a flush.

I would tend to bet at least the full pot on this flop. Your main goal with bet-sizing here is to try and get as much of your stack in as possible if you do make your flush. It's true that if he check-raises all-in you may have to fold and then you've bet yourself off the draw. But there are a lot of other possibilities; I don't think you should let fear of the chance that he has the 2% or so of his range that beats you, dissuade you from getting maximum value or fold-equity in the more likely cases.