Comments on: Broadway vs Small Pairs Flop Analysis

By: Lexine

Lexine — Fri, 20 May 2011 20:52:10 +0000

Didnt know the forum rules allowed such briallnit posts.

By: Counting The Odds » Pre-flop Raise, then C-bet Strategy

Counting The Odds » Pre-flop Raise, then C-bet Strategy — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 16:28:12 +0000

[...] say I have a hand like AJ suited. I then have more than 13.75% chance of hitting TPTK or better, as discussed here. If we use that 13.75% (which, as one of the commentors pointed out, is in actual fact, a low [...]

By: Derrick Kwa

Derrick Kwa — Wed, 24 Mar 2010 22:52:55 +0000

Yes, definitely. But basically, I'm looking at what hands are “easier” to play. In the sense of, when you can feel confident of your hand. There are always going to be a lot of cases where each hand is ahead. If you look at it from the other point of view, a mid pair of 8-8 could still be ahead without flopping a set. But it makes it a much more marginal hand and harder to play.

The premis was which hand is easier to play, and so I don't really want to be looking at more marginal situations like a flop of QJ5.

By: Derrick Kwa

Derrick Kwa — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 11:58:42 +0000

Yeah, I think the point I was getting at was the idea that (as stated in the first paragraph) a hand like AJ is easier to play than a pocket pair.

Generally, on most flops, you tend to be (or at least to feel) quite safe with TPTK or better. Yes, you can still win if you don't actually have a made hand, but it becomes a marginal situation, which doesn't make it “easier to play”, in a sense. So I'm looking more for times when we can be confident in our made hand.

By: Matt

Matt — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 11:33:04 +0000

In calculating the 13.749% chance of AJ hitting the flop, you've ignored all the cases where the flop comes Axx. (You mentioned that you weren't sure how to quantify the times the opponent has AQ or AK, but then you didn't include any figure in the sum for the Axx case).

Also it is possible for AJ suited to hit the flop in other ways. For example if the flop comes T72 with 2 of the suit then you have the best hand (if the opponent didn't flop a set). Also there are flops like QT9.

I think if you include the Axx cases and the big draws you're going to find that you "hit" the flop with AJs somewhere around 45% of the time. (or a bit less once you discount the opponent AQ and AK cases).

I also think you should not be too quick to discount flops like QJ5 ; as we are still ahead of a lot of the opponent's range on a flop like this.

By: Math Corrections: TPTK Odds « Counting The Odds

Math Corrections: TPTK Odds « Counting The Odds — Sun, 27 Dec 2009 12:49:07 +0000

[...] back at my post on Broadway vs Small Pairs, I realize I made a mistake in one of the calculations. In the post, I said this: There are 2 more [...]